Anthony Frausto-Robledo (afrausto@architosh.com)

12 July 2001

Pre-New York Meditations on the Possible

In the past Architosh has handed out its usual pre-expo predictions with the caution of a neighborhood school crossing guard. Not so this time. Such reserve may stem from the fact that Architosh.com by nature is not in the business of rumor-milling—though admittedly just about every site partakes in it from time to time. It's just good business sense, I suppose.

Making the Grade

Naturally what makes talking about what Mr. Jobs wishes to keep so secret so very difficult is that there is this potential double-edged sword. Get too close and Apple legal will be breathing down your back! Miss by a Texas mile and you may become the laughing stock of the Mac online news community. Ultimately then in the world of pre-show rumor milling, making the grade is all that really counts. [Not that these guys do a very good job]

A Special Macworld

This New York Expo promises to be the best Expo ever at this venue...with or without Adobe. And for traditional Architosh readers this same advice goes to all those CAD/3D vendors who opt to just go to the San Francisco show. Not to fret too much however, this event will have 3D vendors that have not been to this show before—like Alias/Wavefront showing the new and awesome Maya Complete for Mac OS X. We have a special appointment to talk with the folks who are coming back to the Mac with Hollywood's favorite special effects app...and we are going to be asking them some probing questions about Mac support.

Driving Maya

There are other reasons why this show is going to be special. The odds are in favor that Apple will be introducing new 'high-octane' Power Mac G4 towers...and that elusive 1 GHz G4 machine may garner the greatest applause out of a keynote speech that Jobs has heard in a very long time.

There is a bevy of evidence pointing toward much better production coming out of Motorola's chip fab these days. Word has it that the 733MHz G4 chip was originally tied to the ultra-expensive DVD SuperDrive machine to help keep orders down, fearing a poor supply of the 733MHz chips. But yields of the higher megahertz versions improved dramatically over the course of the last few months, leading Apple to implement two options: first allow a non-SuperDrive 733MHz machine to ship out with a CD-R drive (much less expensive) and, two, to eliminate the 633MHz G4 chip altogether.

Yields are reportedly improved so much so that some expect the 733MHz chip (or 750/766Mhz) to become the new baseline Power Mac, with a potential 1 GHz model being, initially the top model. Although there is much controversy about Apple being able to push a 1 GHz machine out the door this summer, this author would bet much on Apple doing just that. In any event, Apple has to push a 1 GHz machine out the door before Intel ships the 2 GHz chips later on in the year. If not now then possibly at Seybold SF.

But the stronger reason is that it's possible. Some are reporting that there are large quantities of 1 GHz G4 chips sitting in warehouses ready for production. That Apple has ordered Motorola to produce as many as possible in preparations for new pro towers. And we have heard directly from a reliable source that Motorola's improved yields have gotten the chip up to 1.33 GHz, but not in reliable enough yields

A Quad Mac?

What about quads? Good question. We initially were going to say that Apple would likely not have quad G4 Power Macs for quite some time. That seemed logical, from what we were hearing. However we have been informed that we may indeed by wrong.

Without Photoshop on Mac OS X ready yet, what would Apple be rushing quads for?

The answer to that may indeed be part of the mystery that seems to be mounting around this year's keynote. And it may come from familiar quarters like video. What most are forgetting to talk about is Final Cut Pro and its ever growing importance to Apple's growth in the film and broadcast industry. Apple has made great strides in the digital video revolution, and it is not about to blow it over perceived slow machines.

We are not saying Quads for sure. Some logic dictates that quads won't come until 2002. But we would love to be proved wrong.

The Big Mystery? Is There One?

Many are getting the sense that Jobs has a big surprise for us and that very few know what it is. Us included. A wild guess says it is Apple's next PDA. What other product could have taken so many years to put together correctly?

Think about it. The last time Apple did the Newton it rushed the product out the door too soon. Steve would never make that mistake. And his PDA would be vastly superior to even the Newton—Scully's wonder machine. When Steve admitted that Apple wanted to buy Palm he basically admitted Apple wanted to be a player in the PDA market. Just don't think about it as PDA though. It may likely be something closer to a cell phone. The only question in my mind is when?