Architosh Staff (info@architosh.com)

17 Oct 00

On the Web: Some Hot Items

Architosh likes to bring occasional web goodies to our readers' attention from time to time. Here are a few:

Mac MP3 on the Web

Exploring QuickTime 5 we came across TechTV's Alternatip: Mac MP Central. In addition to pointing Mac users to the best new MP3 resources, including players and software, the article also mentioned that National Public Radio maintains QuickTime archives, allowing you to listen to whatever you like and may have missed.

Napster is coming out with a Macintosh client soon (the current beta 13 version is out) but until then there is Rapster and Macster. The current version of Rapster supports Firewalls. The Macster web site is also very helpful for those new to music on the computer as well. It list various apps useful to music enjoyment. Getting started is simple.

Apple to be better off financially for Quarter 4

If you thought Apple's earnings warning announcement a week ago was a wee bit strange than you are not alone. Does it make sense that Apple would suffer too by the downturn in PC sales this past quarter? Absolutely. Does it make sense that the Cube would not do as well as anticipated? Yup. And does it make sense that Apple is facing fierce competition in the K-12 space? Yes, it does.

But all of that being reasonable doesn't quite make sense for the up to 15 cents difference in earnings for Q4, 2000. That! never seemed quite just right. For starters, despite juggling a product transition from the summer, Apple appears to have done well in clearing out old iMac inventory. Many sources on the Net have reported that much before. In our own observation local stores like Microcenter in Cambridge, Massachusetts, have done well in clearing out the old machines plenty early...and the new machines appear to be selling quite well.

Furthermore, the G4 multiprocessor towers are selling well to professionals who can benefit now, regardless of the status of OS X. Remember, Mac OS 9 DOES support multiprocessing, it just does so asymmetrically. Apps like Photoshop, Cinema4D, Strata 3D Pro and others all benefit from multiple processors now under OS 9.

Apparently AppleInsider thinks so as well. Further, they claim inside sources say Apple has exaggerated warnings so that when final numbers come in they wouldn't look so bad. That claim is not without merit. Apple has been under estimating themselves for years now under Fred Anderson's financial reign. And good for Fred. Being conservative is good because it means you beat the Stereo every time!

According to sources Apple's figures will come in better than the $.30-.33 per share profit they just announced. Based on common sense, how Fred has handled these projections in the past (being conservative) and how tricky Jobs tends to be about getting the public and Wall Street to try and second guess Apple's future, don't be surprised if Apple's actual profits are much better. Which makes this moment a very good time to buy Apple stock—with the prices so low and all.

Our Earnings Estimate: Based on Past Experience and Common Sense

Apple will report earnings of $.36 to $.40 per share, excluding investment gains. Since tech stocks have come down so much over the last two quarters it makes little sense for Apple to sell stock in its corporate investments for increasing earnings. However, they may have already sold some stock back in July or August before the tech stocks took a dive.